Shorter market notes, open questions, and working observations.
One simple trade idea I have been thinking about recently is going long the Brent-WTI spread. Why? First, if you look at the past few weeks, or from the start of the war until now, oil prices have generally stayed below ...
Read ThoughtThis is a side note for my thoughts, mostly because the last few weeks have forced me to rethink the way I was trading rates. Since Waller's recent speeches, I think there has been a real shift in tone. He has usually be...
Read ThoughtI just do not see why everything is rallying as if nothing can go wrong, while people keep telling me this is not 1999. You have massive CapEx, massive depreciation extension, lots of SBC concerns, and lots of accounting...
Read ThoughtAvis Budget ($CAR). "Total return swap" - just the phrase alone brings Bill Hwang to mind. A truly legendary figure. The short squeeze in this stock is one of the more interesting market events I have come across lately....
Read ThoughtAfter watching Kevin Warsh's hearing today, my biggest takeaway was not "how hawkish he is," but that he was more restrained than expected and clearly more skilled at navigating confirmation politics. He repeatedly empha...
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